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by Australia and Canada—two countries of the Anglosphere, similar in culture and politics, holding elections within weeks of each other. No two elections were better fit to recognise the ripple effects of Trump’s election in November, and so far, it seems like both nations have witnessed identical trends. Is it a coincidence?
An Election Watch Commentary by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir
Research and Publications Division
Only a year ago, Canada's ruling Liberal Party was behind in the polls, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau facing deep unpopularity, owing to his failures in dealing with several sociopolitical problems. National crises related to the cost of living, housing, and immigration pushed the public to favour the Conservative Party and its Trump-style leader, Pierre Poilievre. At the end of the year, it looked certain that the Conservatives were going to reclaim their power, and that Canada would witness a tilt towards the right.
The same could have been said for Australia. The centre-right Liberal-National Coalition had been leading the Labor Party for some time, as national crises similar to Canada’s led to the unpopularity of the incumbent prime minister Anthony Albanese, who was polling behind them² for some time, though the situation was better for Labor here.
These two countries, more similar than not, seemed to be heading towards the same result in the general elections held in April and May respectively, and with anti-incumbency having largely defined electoral politics in 2024, it seemed like that trend would simply carry on this year. However, this outcome failed to materialise in either nation. The incumbents not only continued their rule but also increased their seat counts in parliaments, defying the usual trend of anti-incumbency.
While America and Canada are separated by an ocean, a common factor remained that the polls were flipped as soon as Donald Trump came to power in the US, assuming hostility to all allies. Was Trump responsible for this sudden turnaround?
Australia’s Labor Party and its historic victory
Since the mid-20th century, Australian politics has followed a general trend. The Liberal Party—which has been in a coalition with the National Party since 1946—has been in power most of the time, with Labor coming in to “shake things up” and implement changes to the status quo when the people needed it. In 2022, led by Anthony Albanese, Labor came to power after nine years of rule by the Liberal-National Coalition, and was tasked with fixing an economy plagued by high house prices and a cost-of-living crisis, in addition to the people’s frustration over high levels of immigration that the Coalition had seemingly not resolved.
While Albanese’s government did commit to lowering migration and increasing investment into healthcare and other sectors, resulting in several budget surpluses, Australia was not immune from the inflationary pressures that had arisen from the pandemic. High inflation and related issues had pushed the Labor Party behind in the polls, and made it unlikely that Albanese would be re-elected after serving a full three-year term.
The polls, however, flipped³ in 2025, as Coalition leader Peter Dutton failed to capitalise on any sort of dissatisfaction that people might have had. Throughout the campaign, Albanese was by far the more popular leader between the two. His campaign was hit by many gaffes and never gained much coherence.⁴ He was painted as ‘out of touch’ when it came to living expenses, while his opponent appeared to attempt to fix the issue. Dutton also leaned more into culture wars as the campaign went on, particularly on fighting “wokeness,”⁵ which didn’t sit well with many Australians.
Ultimately, Albanese became the first PM to be re-elected after a full term since 2004, and the first from the Labor Party to do so since 1990, and it surprisingly did so by increasing its majority. In a parliament where 76 seats are needed for a majority, the Labor Party increased its seat share⁶ to 89 seats, and gained in the popular vote as well. Peter Dutton experienced staggering failure not only at the national level, but at the local level as well, as he lost his own seat in Parliament, which put the cherry on top for Labor.
Overall, this was a stunning victory for the incumbent Labor Party, which has completely overturned the anti-incumbent sentiments that have prevailed across the world in the past year, and especially in Australia, where issues relating to healthcare, cost of living, immigration and others continue to be on people’s minds. There was, of course, another major factor that introduced itself into the election: Donald Trump. And to see how he would have played a role in this election, one can look at what happened in Canada in April.
How Canada’s Liberals came back from disaster
Justin Trudeau, having won an election in 2015, became incredibly unpopular⁶ by 2024, as socioeconomic concerns turned Canadians against his government. His failures included the inability to improve Canada’s healthcare system, especially after COVID; a crippling housing crisis; high levels of immigration that Canadians have soured against; and several personal scandals that made him seem untrustworthy. He seemed increasingly aloof to many from these issues, and in the end, a series of resignations including of his own Deputy Prime Minister forced him to resign.
Until Trudeau’s resignation, the polls showed that Canadians had a clear favourite: Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who had taken over the party in 2022 following its loss in the general election. Poilievre, unlike previous Leaders of the Opposition, didn’t try to make the party more moderate, but appeased populist and right-wing rhetoric. At a time when the Liberal government wasn’t performing well, it was a breath of fresh air for many voters. Poilievre was an unabashed populist, with many comparisons being drawn to Trump. As a politician taking advantage of discontent with the establishment, he harped on ideas that previous leaders had considered too taboo to be associated with, especially on issues of culture and society. In fact, Poilievre’s comments on trans rights were severe enough to draw condemnation from Amnesty International.⁷
However, in 2025, Canada witnessed perhaps the most spectacular reversal in election polling that has been seen this century. Coinciding with two major political events— Trudeau’s resignation and the beginning of Trump’s second term—the Liberal Party experienced a sharp rise in the polls, while the Conservatives witnessed a dramatic collapse.⁸ What was once projected to be the biggest Conservative majority in history shifted forecasts of a Liberal sweep, causing speculation that Poilievre might even be ousted as party leader. With Trudeau gone, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Party. This was a setback for Poilievre as his new opponent was considerably more well-liked than the former prime minister.
As soon as Carney came into office and called a snap election, it became clear that Canadians had a personal liking for Carney and his moderate and ‘sensible’ politics. Public support had not come about from genuine approval of Poilievre but rather a reaction against the widely unpopular Trudeau. To make matters worse for Poilievre, Donald Trump began openly attacking Canada for its “unfair” trade policies, threatening ruinous tariffs and annexation of the country as America’s “51st state.” This provoked a “rally around the flag” effect, where Canadians strengthened their support for the government united against a significant foreign threat—ironically damaging for Poillevre who had long been hailed as the Canadian Trump. Carney, free to break with Trudeau on policy and able to campaign on popular economic and social policies, continued to surge in the polls, leaving Poilievre behind in the dust.
In the following election, the Liberal Party, while falling short of a majority, emerged victorious, less than five seats from the 50% mark; the Conservatives faced a great disappointment, with Poilievre experiencing the humiliation of losing his own seat.⁹ Though the exact seat share is yet to be determined due to a probable recount in a seat in Quebec, the Liberals seem to have won 169 out of 343 seats, while the Conservatives are at 144. While both parties grew their seat share, mostly at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois and the New Democratic Party, it is nothing short of an embarrassment for a Conservative Party that seemed to have been on its way to one of the biggest electoral victories of Canada.
Did Trump play a role, and should leaders take note?
The parallels between Canada and Australia’s elections are striking, especially in the collapse of the right-wing parties in the polls once Trump’s second term began. Peter Dutton and Pierre Poilievre both saw similar drops in the polls, faced the same humiliation of losing their seats, and ultimately throughout their campaigns, the same comparisons to Donald Trump. They both embraced populist right-wing talking points, especially on social issues such as LGBTQ+ rights. Notably, they refrained from actively distancing themselves from Trump, hoping that the president’s popularity among conservatives across the Western world would mobilize voters in their favour.
However, the strategy of ambiguity, implying either staying silent about Trump or actively supporting his ideology, seems to have backfired significantly in both countries. Trump has come in with promises to fight back against trade policies he perceives to be unfair, and has lashed out at the entire world through tariffs and trade restrictions that also significantly affected US allies. Canada has found itself right in the president’s crosshairs, with Trump having made numerous comments that seem to indicate that he truly aims to annex Canada¹⁰ like he does Greenland, and with significant tariffs being imposed on Canada,¹¹ the intended fate of these nations is still unclear. For the Liberal Party government, it was simple enough to slam Poilievre on his close association with Trump and his ideology, and attack him as being ‘sympathetic’ to what seems to be a national security threat.
For Australia, Trump has not been a direct economic threat, although the nation has been hit by tariffs as well. Unlike Canada, it has not attracted the direct ire of the president. Nonetheless, Trump remains an unpopular and mistrusted figure in Australia, with a poll showing that Australians’ trust in Trump is about the same as China’s Xi Jinping, who is also perceived quite negatively. Trump’s antics in office are widely disliked in Australia, and while Peter Dutton was mostly responsible for his own downfall, there is no question that Albanese and the Labor Party also experienced a rally-around-the-flag effect.
One can see from these two examples that Donald Trump has already proved to be a great influence on different countries’ domestic politics, and looking at Canada, it could be noted that for countries that engage in a great deal of trade with the US, this significant disruption can substantially impact domestic politics.
What this means for India
- “Poll Tracker” CBC News, cbc.ca, 27th April 2025
- Nicholas, Josh; Mansillo, Luke; Evershed, Nick; “Labor v the Coalition: political opinion poll tracker.” The Guardian, 1st May 2025
- Butler, Josh, “Guardian Essential poll: Labor leads Coalition in final pre-election poll as Dutton’s approval rating slips further.” The Guardian, 28th April 2025
- Watson, Katy; Ng, Kelly; “He wanted to be Australia’s PM. But a ‘Trump Effect’ thwarted Peter Dutton.” BBC News, 3rd April 2025
- Chang, Charles, “Accusing others of a woke agenda, Peter Dutton became a victim of his own culture war.” SBS News, 6th May 2025
- “How Justin Trudeau became Canada’s most unwanted leader.” Firstpost, 7th January 2025
- “Pierre Poilievre’s comments about Trans women ‘A Dangerous Distraction,’ Amnesty International Canada Says.” amnesty.ca, 23th February 2024
- Bhattacharyya, Anirudh, “Canada’s Conservatives collapse: Poilievre trails as Carney surges.” Hindustan Times, 25th April 2025
- Gillies, Rob, “Carney withs Canadian election, while Conservative leader loses his seat in Parliament.” Associated Press, 29th April 2025
- Schneid, Rebecca, “Trump speaks out on his desire to annex Canada, Recession concerns, and if he has to uphold the constitution.” Time Magazine, 4th May 2025
- “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump imposes tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.” whitehouse.gov, 1st February 2025
- Yadav, Nikita, “India ‘hopeful’ of reaching deal with US before Trump’s tariff deadline.” BBC News, 11th June 2025
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