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Syria’s Uncertain Future: A Post-Assad Era Amidst Decades of Suffering

Indian Foreign Policy Projectby   in Crisis Watch , MENA , Middle East 0 comments

 Assad's Syrian Dictatorship has fallen. What does that mean for Syria's future?

Since gaining independence from France in 1946, the Syrian nation has faced severe political unrest and experienced over 10 military coups till 1970. Today, there are hopes that the instability might finally come to an end. Read on for what the future of Syria might look like today.

A MENA Desk & Crisis Watch Joint Report 

by Chenni Valavan | Edited by Abhinav S. Nambeesan


For Syria, the 1960s in particular was a highly tumultuous period, where military coups erupted almost every two years². The exhaustion from the political instability culminated in the 1970 ‘Correction Revolution’ coup, led by Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad. The former general-turned-president took over Syria in 1971 and held the position until his demise. After his death, his son, Bashar al-Assad, took over and ruled Syria from 2000.

The Syrian Civil War erupted in March 2011 as part of the wider Arab Spring and pro-democracy protests, whose spark in Syria was the state’s killing of some teenagers who painted revolutionary slogans on a school wall. What started as a call to arms for self-defence soon turned into a large-scale, multi-faction conflict against Assad’s armed forces. Some factions soon acquired sectarian overtones, pitting the country’s Sunni majority against Assad’s Shia Alawite sect³. This sectarian divide and the lengthy civil war in general created a confusingly complex network of regional and global power support for the factions in the civil war.

With the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, the Assad family’s 53-year hold over Syria has come to an abrupt end. Assad’s government (both the father’s & son’s) has been charged with numerous human rights violations, a crackdown on citizen freedoms, and a ruthless management of the country’s civil war. Despite the recent coordinated offensive that unseated Assad, the future of Syria remains in question.

 

Syria’s Warring Factions & Support Systems

First, we need to simplify and understand the different warring factions of the Syrian Civil War and who’s supporting them. Numerous, however, they can be categorized into pro-Syrian government and government opposition forces. The international players are clear, with the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states opposing Assad’s government, while Russia and Iran support Assad’s rule. However, the anti-Assad faction is a quagmire, comprising several groups, some of which are allied and some are in conflict with each other.

The Syrian Armed Forces serve as the primary support for Assad’s government. Supplementing them are the paramilitary National Defence Forces (NDF), a formal amalgamation of irregular pro-Assad militias formerly collectively called ‘shabbiha.’

Syria is further supported by Russia and Iran, along with Iran-backed rebels and organizations, including Hezbollah. Russia had also reportedly deployed the Wagner Group in support of Syrian operations. Russia entered the conflict in 2015, supplying modern arms to Syria as well as conducting aerial sorties and missile strikes against anti-government rebels and extremists. In return, Syria granted Russia a 49-year lease on its Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base. Iran had officers from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Ground Forces) & Quds Force on the ground and provided vital military supplies to Assad⁴.

Defections in the Syrian military are high, and many of the defected joined factions operating under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army/Syrian National Army (SNA). These groups were supplied and financed primarily by Türkiye. SNA is Türkiye’s pawn in the game to keep check of the organized Kurdish movement. Turkey sees the Kurds as a major security threat and assumes that a Kurdish area near Turkey could be a safe haven for anti-Turkish operations⁵.

The Kurds, meanwhile, banded together under the Syrian Democratic Force against Syrian persecution and had established the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (or Rojava). Although a foe to Türkiye, the US armed and trained the group to fight against IS (Islamic State) terror outfits. Additionally, US has around 900 troops to support the Kurds.  

Finally, there’s the Islamic State (or ISIS—the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIL—the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and other allied extremist organizations such as Jabhat al-Nusra Front, whose intent was to create a caliphate in the region of Iraq and Syria.

It is from one of the allied extremist organizations, the al-Nusra Front, that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was born.


The Recent Offensive & Flight of Assad

The recent fall of the Syrian regime began with a lightning offensive on 27th November by the Military Operations Command (MOC), a coalition of rebel groups led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. The initial assault was launched from their stronghold base in Idlib province of Northwestern Syria, first seizing the strategic city of Aleppo on 30th November⁶, then marching southward⁷ towards government-held areas of Homs and Damascus.

By 5th December, the MOC had captured its neighbouring province of Hama and set its sights on the core strategic regions of Assad—mainly, Homs. Homs serves as a vital link between the capital of Damascus and critically important provinces of Lattakia and Tartus, which are home to Assad’s strongholds and Russia’s military bases. MOC captured it by 7th December, and the distance between itself and Damascus was less than 200 kilometers. Simultaneously, local armed groups took control of the Daraa city south of Damascus by the Southern Operations Room (the city was nicknamed ‘the cradle of revolution’ as the 2011 uprising started here) and the neighboring Suwayda province on December 6th. It was only a matter of time before Damascus fell into rebel hands.

The regime’s final collapse took place on 8th December, as local fighters and HTS forces had entered Damascus and took control of Syria without facing any resistance. Bashar al-Assad and his family were transported to Russia ‘in a secured way’ (according to the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov), where he and his family were granted asylum.

 

The ‘sudden’ fall of Assad’s regime can be attributed to a combination of factors. Extensive training of HTS forces, a successful anti-government outreach to Syria’s diverse communities, the unparalleled coordination between various rebel factions, and the non-availability of any substantial Iranian, Russian, or Hezbollah support due to other ongoing conflicts (Russia is invested in Ukraine while Hezbollah is dealing with a near-collapse in the face of an Israeli onslaught)⁸ all combined together to create a precarious situation for the regime while providing an opportunity for all opposition forces to mount an assault, which ultimately succeeded. Hezbollah’s and Iranian support were highly critical—their involvement turned the tide for Assad when the rebels were winning a decade ago⁹.

 

Uncertain Future for Syria

The nation erupted in celebrations as the news of Assad’s toppling spread throughout the country. Prisons were broken into (including the now notorious Saydnaya military prison) and prisoners were freed, and anxiously waiting outside were relatives of detainees who were not freed even decades after their incarceration. People also ransacked the central bank and Assad’s private residence, set fire to Assad Sr.’s tomb, and toppled statues of Assad’s brother and Assad Sr. Refugees and internally displaced citizens are returning (or planning to return) to their Syrian hometowns; a large portion of returning refugees are those who fled to Lebanon. There is some semblance of order, as the outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalili promised that the cabinet will remain operational until 2025 and ensured a smooth transition of power to an HTS-led interim government. However, the situation for Syria isn’t stable, even with Assad fleeing the country.

Syrian infrastructure is destroyed beyond recognition/repair due to the civil war as well as the current Israeli airstrikes and the catastrophic 2023 earthquakes. These have exacerbated the ongoing humanitarian crisis of aid cuts, epidemics (e.g., 2022-23 cholera outbreaks and scabies outbreak), and water/power cuts. Along with that, the region faced further adversity thanks to the COVID pandemic and international sanctions. Upwards of 90% of Syrians are living in poverty¹⁰ as of today. These woes are further compounded by adverse climate change effects, particularly after 2020, which resulted in low rainfall and high temperatures, affecting farming output and animal husbandry¹¹.

According to a report by UNHCR, as of 2024 there were 13 million Syrians displaced from their homes. The figure includes 7.4 million internally displaced Syrians. The future dynamics of migration are yet to be conclusive, as they’re dependent on whether Syria will be stable enough to convince people to return to their homes.

 

Impact on Regional & Global Dynamics

The regime’s fall has significant implications for the region and the world. A major concern is the potential resurgence of any Islamic-extremist organization like ISIL, as anti-IS forces are preoccupied with the power vacuum.

With regards to stability, it is also uncertain whether the HTS will be able to manage a central government over the entirety of Syria or be controlled by a patchwork of various rebel groups in different provinces. This dynamic will create conditions for inter-group conflicts, undermining stability.

HTS is trying to distance itself from its IS/al-Qaeda extremist past and get removed from the terrorist list in order to directly funnel international aid and gain power in Syria. Reconciling the diverse factions and rebuilding Syria will be a daunting task and will have significant implications for regional stability and international relations.

Furthermore, the ousting of Assad is a severe blow to Russian operations in Syria, the Middle East, and Africa, as the Khmeimim air base serves as a logistical hub for Russia’s ‘Africa Corps.’ Also, losing an ally whom Russia had long supported would damage the global perception of Russia as an effective partner and protector¹². Overall, Russia’s footprints will become much fainter in the West Asian region. The Kremlin reportedly secured an arrangement with opposition leaders to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria, but the specificity of this arrangement and which bases will be protected are not clear¹³. Iran has much to lose, too, as Syria was part of Iran’s highly touted ‘Axis of Resistance,’ and it has lost one pearl in the string while the other (Hezbollah) is damaged. Israel has more of a window of opportunity, as it took the liberty to wipe out a majority of Syrian military assets to prevent it from falling into rebel hands, including its stockpiles of chemical weapons and Scud missiles in an extensive airstrike campaign¹⁴ and occupied the demilitarized zone in Syria.

India successfully evacuated 75 Indian nationals from Syria following the start of the current conflict. India and Syria have maintained friendly diplomatic relations, as Syria was an important nation in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). The importance of Syria to India extends further, as Syria has consistently supported India’s position on the Kashmir issue, declaring that India has the right to resolve the issue in any manner and without external assistance¹⁵, which stood is in stark contrast with other OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) countries. Along with that, India supports the return of the Golan Heights to Syria and stood against Syrian sanctions. Additionally, India had invested in the Syrian oil sector and bilateral trade between the two nations was over $100 million in 2020-23¹⁶—a sum that is useful for a sanction-stricken nation. India’s economic and diplomatic ties with Syria offered promising avenues for future growth and India’s growing influence in West Asia. With HTS’ takeover, it remains to be seen whether the ties are honored by the new Syrian government.

 

Conclusion

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime marks a critical juncture in the tumultuous history of Syria. Even though people are rejoicing at the end of the harsh dictatorship, the way forward is going to be difficult. The long-drawn wars and conflicts have irrevocably damaged the infrastructure, economy, and social order of the country.

 With HTS' new leadership comes the humongous task of rebuilding a divided Syria along lines of conflict and sectarianism. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation is highly complex with loosely consolidated regional powers. The possibility of renewed conflict cannot be dismissed with militant groups still active and the issue of Kurds and Russian/Iranian presence still unresolved.

 Of course, all that the future of Syria would depend on was how it could face up to those challenges with a trajectory toward peace and prosperity. Beyond that, the international community needs to stay involved and committed in offering continuous support to define its future in hope rather than in despair and fragmentation.
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